Posted June 04, 2013

Oddsmaker heavily favors Heat over Spurs in 2013 Finals

Ben Golliver, LeBron James, Miami Heat, San Antonio Spurs
(Issac Baldizon/Getty Images)

The Heat are the odds-on favorite to win their second straight Larry O’Brien trophy. (Issac Baldizon/Getty Images)

The Heat entered the regular season as title favorites, they entered the playoffs as title favorites, and they will enter the 2013 Finals as title favorites.

Oddsmaking service Bovada.LV lists the defending champions as a heavy favorite over the Spurs in the Finals, which begin Thursday night in Miami’s American Airlines Arena. Miami is given 5/12 odds while San Antonio is set at 2/1.

By comparison, Miami opened the preseason as 11/5 favorites and entered the playoffs as 2/3 favorites after winning an NBA-best 66 games. San Antonio opened the preseason with 18/1 odds and entered the playoffs with the third-best odds, 10/1, trailing only Miami and Oklahoma City after winning 58 games and earning the Western Conference’s No. 2 seed.

The Heat, who are 12-4 in the playoffs, are also picked to prevail over the Spurs, who are 12-2 in the postseason, by a majority of this SI.com experts panel.

Heat forward LeBron James, the 2012 and 2013 MVP, is Bovada’s favorite to repeat as Finals MVP with 4/9 odds. Tony Parker (9/2), Tim Duncan (7/1) and Dwyane Wade (8/1) follow James on the list of favorites, with both Chris Bosh and Manu Ginobili listed at 20/1.

Bovada provides the following odds on the various series results.

  • Heat in 4                  7/1
  • Heat in 5                  19/4
  • Heat in 6                  11/4
  • Heat in 7                 10/3
  • Spurs in 4               18/1
  • Spurs in 5               17/2
  • Spurs in 6               7/1
  • Spurs in 7               7/1

SI.com’s Rob Mahoney previews the 2013 Finals right here.

18 comments
ThatGuy2013
ThatGuy2013

Some people are dense. No sane person would argue that Roy Hibbert is better than Tim Duncan but only an insane person would deny the enormous disparity in physicality. Chris Bosh is in his element going against a front court player who is own size and plays a similar finesse game. He's not going up against a 7'2 280 pound behemoth who outweighs him by forty five pounds and is three inches taller. That's roughly the size difference between Dwyane Wade and LeBron James.

Maybe that's why Bosh has owned Duncan the last five or six times they met:


http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=boshch01&p2=duncati01



RyanMcLaughlin
RyanMcLaughlin

If there was no shot clock the Spurs would stall the ball

gdub311945
gdub311945

The odds are so prohibitive for the Heat in the NBA finals, that maybe the games shouldn't be played. What does Las Vegas know that we don't? Is Tony Parker, and Duncan injured? Is Ginobili out for the series.?The Indiana Pacer's matched-up well with the Miami for seven games, and the Spur's have even a better team with big men. Anyway this series according to the odds will only last five games. Maybe the San Antonio has been payed-off by the moguls of Los Wages. The sportswriter's have picked this series to be won by the Heat in seven games. It seems like a coin flip to me. I think that my money will stay in my wallet on this one!

goingaways
goingaways

the  previous post makes about as much sense as most of the posts I read! so in case any of you rocket scientists actually took it for real,, SURPRISE,  I was being sarcastic,,(Email me and I will tell you what that word means you aholes)

goingaways
goingaways

heat are gonna win a million games and spurs none and lebron is the best and wade is the best and bosh is the best and the spurs are bad and we will win and we will score more and everything so there so stop talking

leehwgoc
leehwgoc

The Heat have beaten the Spurs in 4 out of 5 match-ups since 2011, since the Heat have put together their super-team.  The lone win came back in 2011.

Bosh in particular has excelled vs the Spurs, for some reason.  It surprises me too, but the numbers don't lie.  He's averaged 23.6 points and 11 rebounds against Tim Duncan, both stats well above his season averages.  Even in the loss he owned the glass with 14 rebounds.

Reality check, thekdubb.

budkin
budkin

@leehwgoc Do you just search google for stats or do you watch the games? They've only played each other full strength twice, and it's 1-1 after they traded 30 pt blowouts.

thekdubb
thekdubb like.author.displayName 1 Like

If you thought Bosh looked weak and ineffective against Hibbert, wait until you see him going up against the vastly superior in every conceivable aspect of the game ,and well-rested Tim Duncan.  Duncan is a top 5 all -time player.  Bosh maybe isn't even a top 50 player of just this year (I  mean seriously, there are 30 teams, Bosh might not even be a top 100 player).  I don't care how good your small forward is:  The great duncan and extremely offensively skilled Splitter so insanely trump Bosh and whatever of 1.2 ppg big man they want to put out there, that it's not even funny.  Game, set match.

Oh and please, i mean PLEASE, some bandwagon heat-tard, please bring up D-Wade as a positive thing about your "team". PLEASE!  D-Wade used to be pretty good a few years ago, but now he's fat and slow.  Parker is seriously 1000 (that's a thousand hot a hundred, South Floridians)  times better than Wade.  TP is the best point-guard in the league by far.  He throws bounce passes to a variety of Spurs players for layups, while CP3 throws lobs to Blake and DJ.  Hey, whatever gets you All-Star team votes from Sprite drinking fans.  Oh, I'm sorry we were talking about Wade, hahahahaha, it seems funny to even breathe his name when talking about the best guard in the league.  Anyone offended my honest hoops-junkie bball expert opinion on the currently injured and non-conditioned version of Wade can cover your ears (ok, eyes) and make loud noises and hop in your time machine and go back to 2006, back when he was still really good.


Spurs in 4.

JonathanD
JonathanD

@thekdubb I keep going back and forth - I can't tell if he's trolling or serious.  I think trolling, but he never fully gives himself away.

leehwgoc
leehwgoc

@thekdubb Anyway, it's really obvious you're a throbbing Spurs homer.  Or maybe just a throbbing Heat hater getting on the 'I'll take anyone vs the Heat' bandwagon.  

Either way, much of what you're saying here is nonsense.  Enjoy your ignorance while you still can.  

leehwgoc
leehwgoc like.author.displayName 1 Like

@thekdubb We did see Bosh go up against Duncan in the regular-season.

Interestingly (and surprisingly) Bosh had one of this best games of the year and completely dominated Duncan.

Also, Tony Parker has consistently struggled with the Heat's perimeter-defense, particularly vs Norris Cole.

There's a reason why the oddsmakers favor the Heat, despite them needing 7 games to win the ECF and the Spurs looking dominant against Memphis.  They're not partial fanboys, they just make objective observations.  And the objective truth is that the Spurs have consistently struggled against the Heat every time they've played them over the last two seasons.

Honestly, Memphis would've been a much tougher match-up for the Heat.  The Spurs probably did the Heat a big favor.

TimCupery
TimCupery

@thekdubbif you're confident about this, go ahead and put a bunch of money down on Spurs in 4. I'll even give you a mulligan - put a bunch of money down on Spurs in 4 or 5. Then we'll know you actually believe this and aren't just a fan on a rant.

doghockey
doghockey

@thekdubb Quite a rant.   Chris Bosh may not be top three on any team in the league?  Good one.  Tony Parker is 1000 times better than Wade?   Another good one.   I don't know how you actually quantify such things, but I am guessing that the best player in the league is not 1000 times better than the worst player in the league.  That said, if you can prove such a claim, do it.  However, after all your inane rambling, your last call was the best.   Spurs in four?   Sure.